Weekly Market & Economic News Recap (Week of November 13, 2023)

• US Producer Prices decline by most since April 2020 on gasoline. Prices paid to producers sank 0.5% in October, core unchanged. Decline in goods costs led by gasoline, services prices flat. (November 15, 2023, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/us-producer-prices-decline-by-most-since-april-2020-on-gasoline?srnd=null)

• US retail sales slow ahead of holidays but remain resilient. Value of purchases eased 0.1% in October, better than forecast. Seven out of 13 categories fell, led by furniture and cars. (November 15, 2023, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/us-retail-sales-fall-by-less-than-forecast-ahead-of-holidays?srnd=null)

• US mortgage rates fall for third week, dropping to 7.44%. Mortgage applications have ticked up as borrowing costs drop. Recent economic data lowers odds of rate hike, economist says. (November 16, 2023, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/us-mortgage-rates-decrease-for-third-week-falling-to-7-44?srnd=null)

• US yields underestimate ‘adverse fiscal dynamics,’ Barclays says. Estimates deficit is worth 50 to 75 basis points at long end. Its yield forecasts for end-2024 are higher than forwards. (November 16, 2023, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/barclays-says-us-yields-underestimate-adverse-fiscal-dynamics?srnd=null)

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said policymakers are likely at or near the end of their campaign to raise interest rates as inflation continues to cool, echoing remarks he made last month. (November 17, 2023, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/fed-s-barr-says-recent-data-reinforce-view-that-rates-near-peak?srnd=null)

• Wall Street traders are placing all-or-nothing bets on a soft landing. Small caps rally, junk bonds see inflows amid rate-cut bets. Data shows cooling economy but exceeding worst-case forecasts. (November 17, 2023, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/soft-landing-pipe-dream-is-energizing-every-corner-of-markets?srnd=null)

• Stocks advance for a third straight week. Major indexes extended gains on Friday; Benchmark yields held steady. (November 17, 2023, Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-11-17-2023-6fb2a00b?mod=stocks_news_article_pos3)

• Profit recession ends as a challenging holiday season begins. Flurry of retail earnings to give latest update on consumer. Profits are up 4% year-over-year for S&P 500 for third quarter. (November 18, 2023, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-18/profit-recession-ends-as-a-challenging-holiday-season-begins?srnd=economics-v2)