Inflation, Interest-Rate Worries Drag Stocks Downward. Treasurys and big tech shares drop after hot economic data. (Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-09-06-2023-39b4dd6b?mod=stocks_news_article_pos5)
America’s trade trouble will continue. The U.S. trade deficit remains far wider than it was before the pandemic struck. (Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/economy/americas-trade-trouble-will-continue-b7b3a43e?mod=trade_news_article_pos1)
US retail workers are fed up and quitting at record rates. The job is more complicated than ever — and increasingly not worth the low pay. (Bloomberg, September 7, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-09-08/us-retail-workers-are-quitting-facing-low-pay-crime-long-hours?srnd=economics-v2)
Wall Street’s biggest bear ditches call for 11% S&P drop in 2023. BNP’s Boutle marks up end-of-year call to 4,150 after rally. The forecaster was ‘surprised at the resilience of the data’. (Bloomberg, September 7, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/wall-street-s-biggest-bear-ditches-call-for-11-s-p-drop-in-2023?srnd=null)
US mortgage rates ease from highs, falling for second week. Average for a 30-year loan has been above 7% for four weeks. Tight inventory in housing market has kept prices elevated. (Bloomberg, September 7, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/us-mortgage-rates-ease-from-highs-falling-for-second-week?srnd=null)
The Fed is getting more hopeful it can avoid a US recession. Policymakers prepare to hold rates steady later this month. Officials more attuned to risk of raising rates too much. (Bloomberg, September 8, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/federal-reserve-wants-september-rate-pause-to-help-with-us-soft-landing?srnd=economics-v2)
NY Fed staff model sees GDP expanding 2.2% in third quarter. Weekly GDP estimate was relaunched Friday after two-year pause. (Bloomberg, September 8, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/ny-fed-model-sees-gdp-expanding-2-2-in-third-quarter?srnd=null)
Dollar’s relentless rally set for a boost from higher oil prices. SocGen, State Street see higher oil prices weakening the euro. Dollar’s correlation to oil futures rises to nine-month high. (Bloomberg, September 8, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/dollar-s-relentless-rally-set-for-a-boost-from-higher-oil-prices?srnd=null)
Wall Street fears a too-hot economy as recession bets plunge. Asset prices are diverging from positive data in rare split. S&P 500 sees 22% likelihood of contraction vs. 98% in October. (Bloomberg, September 9, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-09/wall-street-fears-a-too-hot-economy-as-recession-bets-plunge?srnd=economics-v2)
China’s consumer prices creep out of deflation in August. CPI rose 0.1% in August after declining a month earlier. Still-weak demand may require more stimulus, economist says. (Bloomberg, September 8, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-09/china-s-consumer-prices-creep-out-of-deflation-in-august?srnd=null)
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